– Date of implementation of the current subseasonal (SSF) and seasonal (SF) forecast system: September 2022
– Whether the system is a coupled ocean–atmosphere forecast system: no
– Whether the system is a two tier forecast system: yes
– Atmospheric model resolution: 0.9x0.72 degree lon-lat, 96 vertical levels
– Ocean model and its resolution (if applicable): n/a
– Source of atmospheric initial conditions: operational HMCR 3D-Var analysis for upper-air fields, OI analysis for screen-level temperature and humidity; simplified extended Kalman filter for soil moisture
– Source of ocean initial conditions: n/a
– If a two tier system is used, the source of SST predictions: ERA5 reanalysis is used as a climate. Sea surface temperature anomaly is defined as a deviation of current analysis data from daily climate, with anomaly decay time of 30 days. The current SST values are daily climate plus anomaly defined above
– Hindcast period: 1991-2015
– Ensemble size for the hindcasts: 11 members for each year (total number of hindcasts 275)
– Method of configuring the hindcast ensemble: breeding vectors are used to create the initial perturbations (Toth, Kalnay, MWR 1997) and stochastic perturbed parameterization parameters (Ollinaho et al, QJRMS 2017) are partially activated to represent uncertainties associated with model formulation
– Ensemble size for the forecast: 41
– Method of configuring the forecast ensemble: the same as for hindcast ensemble but with different ensemble size
– Length of forecasts: 46 days for SSF, 135 days for SF
– Data format: GRIB2
– The latest day of the week that subseasonal forecast anomalies for the next weeks/month become available: Friday
– The latest date that predicted anomalies for the next month/season become available: 14th of each month
– Method of construction of the forecast anomalies: anomaly=forecast-(hindcast climate)
– URL where forecast is available: http://seakc.meteoinfo.ru/en/forecasts/subseasonal-forecast
- Points of contact: Mikhail Tolstykh email: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ; Radomir Zaripov email: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. .
